Statistical Issue Regarding a Pro-Choice Claim

A justification used for complete access to abortion is the issue of conceptions via rape. There are many pro-life activists who will concede the point of abortion access being allowed for instances of rape, incest, and life-for-life. However the question remains how common are abortions due to rape-induced conception? Well, this shall be an effort to at least gather a likely estimate.

Using the records of abortions compiled by the Alan Guttmacher Institute, which is affiliated with Planned Parenthood plus a website on crime stats, http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm, I would like to indicate an interesting trend in the frequency of abortions since the Supreme Court decision Roe v. Wade(1973) up until 1998, the 25th anniversary of the landmark case and the frequency of rapes during that same time period.

There are some flaws to this methodology. One is that rape itself is grossly underreported and that not every rape involves a conception and not every rape-caused conception involves an abortion. I would like to think these two flaws more or less cancel each other out when analyzing the following data. Nevertheless, sampling several of the years between the 1973 and 1998 some interesting percentages are found:

1973:

744,600 abortions / 51,400 rapes

51,400/744,600 = 6.9% of abortions (potentially) being due to rape.

1975:

1,034,200 abortions / 56,090 rapes

56,090/1,034,200 = 5.4% of abortions performed (possibly) because of rape.

1978:

1,409,600 abortions / 67,610 rapes

67,610/1409600 = 4.7% (maybe) due to rape.

1980:

1,553,900 abortions / 82,990 rapes

82990/1553900 = 5.3%

1981:

1,577,300 abortions / 82,500 rapes

82500/1577300 = 5.2%

1985:

1,588,600 abortions / 88,670 rapes

88670/1588600 = 5.6%

1986:

1,574,000 abortions / 91,460 rapes

91460/1574000 = 5.8%

1990:

1,608,600 abortions / 102,560 rapes

102560/1608600 = 6.3%

1992:

1,528,900 abortions / 109,060 rapes

109060/1528900 = 7.1%

1995:

1,363,690 abortions / 97,470 rapes

97470/1363690 = 7.1%

1998:

1,328,000 (est.) / 93,103 rapes

93103/1328000 = 7.0%

In no year since Roe. v Wade(1973) has rape been anywhere near the majority. The average percent of rape as potential justification amounts to 6.03%. This means that even if all rapes involved a conception, the number of justified abortions using this system only amounts to an average of a little over 6%.

In other words, by politically moderate standards 94% of abortions performed in the USA are unjustified. Given the rarity of incest and life-for-life situations, the percentage (6%) would certainly be only a little higher with that addition.

Brought to you by a 251 month old fetus.